OpenAI Chief Financial Officer Sarah Friar launched a spirited defense of the company’s financial strategy, arguing increased spending directly translates to increased revenue — a claim that may prove crucial as the artificial intelligence (AI) giant mulls investment rounds and a possible IPO.
In a blog post Sunday, Friar cited impressive growth metrics: Compute capacity expanded nearly tenfold from 0.2 gigawatts in 2023 to 1.9 gigawatts in 2025, while revenue climbed from $2 billion to more than $20 billion during the same period. The correlation, she insists, is no coincidence.
“We firmly believe that more compute in these periods would have led to faster customer adoption and monetization,” Friar wrote, framing massive infrastructure investment as the key to unlocking future profitability.
“As intelligence moves into scientific research, drug discovery, energy systems, and financial modeling, new economic models will emerge,” Friar said. “Licensing, IP-based agreements, and outcome-based pricing will share in the value created. That is how the internet evolved. Intelligence will follow the same path.”
The company’s 2026 priority centers on bridging the gap between AI capabilities and actual usage patterns across healthcare, scientific research, and enterprise sectors. Friar envisions new revenue models emerging with licensing agreements, intellectual property deals, and outcome-based pricing that parallels the internet’s commercial evolution.
Skepticism abounds, however. HSBC’s analysis last year projected OpenAI would require $207 billion in new financing by 2030, even under optimistic scenarios including 3 billion regular ChatGPT users and higher subscription conversion rates. As of now, about 95% of ChatGPT’s 800 million users don’t pay for the service despite the product generating approximately 70% of OpenAI’s recurring revenue.
Financial stakes extend far beyond OpenAI and to an intricate web of mutual agreements and stock exchanges involving NVIDIA Corp., Microsoft Corp., Oracle Corp., AMD Inc. In fact, AI contributed 40% of U.S. GDP growth and 80% of stock market gains in 2025, according to a Financial Times analysis.
While the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts strong U.S. economic expansion of 2.4% in 2026 and 2% in 2027 driven partly by surging tech investment, IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas warned of “reasons to be somewhat concerned” about potential market corrections if AI productivity and profitability expectations fall short.
Six years ago, Google CEO Sundar Pichai compared AI’s significance to humanity’s discovery of fire. Whether that metaphor proves prophetic for progress or catastrophe may depend largely on whether OpenAI’s financial calculus of spending more to make more ultimately adds up.
For now, the company is betting that continued massive investment will eventually yield proportional returns, even as the path to profitability remains uncertain.
