U.S. online retailers are poised for a breakout holiday season, with e-commerce sales projected to climb 5.3% year-over-year to $253.4 billion, according to a report released Monday by Adobe Analytics, the e-commerce analytics arm of Adobe Inc. The main reason? Artificial intelligence (AI).
The forecast, based on analysis of more than 1 trillion visits to domestic retail websites spanning 100 million products across 18 categories, provides insight into shifting consumer behavior during the critical November-December shopping period. Adobe’s analytics platform serves a majority of the nation’s 100 largest online retailers.
Cyber Monday is expected to retain its crown as the year’s biggest shopping day, with sales forecast to jump 6.3% to $14.2 billion. Black Friday will see even stronger growth, rising 8.3% to $11.7 billion. Thanksgiving Day online spending is projected to reach $6.4 billion, up 4.9% as retailers launch promotions earlier in the season.
Deep discounts averaging 28% off list prices are expected to be a primary driver of holiday sales, Adobe said.
Perhaps the most dramatic shift this season will be the explosion of generative AI-assisted shopping, with AI-driven traffic to retail sites forecast to spike 520% year-over-year. The surge is expected to peak in the 10 days before Thanksgiving, building on a 1,300% increase in AI traffic observed in 2024.
A survey of 5,000 U.S. consumers conducted by Adobe found 53% plan to use AI services for product research, while 40% intend to leverage AI for recommendations, 36% for finding deals, and 30% for gift ideas. Categories like toys, electronics, jewelry, and personal care are expected to see the highest AI adoption. Electronics will lead holiday spending at $57.5 billion (up 4%), followed by apparel at $47.6 billion (up 4.4%) and furniture at $31.1 billion (up 6.5%).
Mobile devices will account for a record 56.1% of online spending this holiday season, up from 54.5% last year and 51.1% in 2023. The continued shift toward mobile commerce shows no signs of slowing, Adobe noted, particularly as larger smartphone screens make online shopping more convenient.
Buy now, pay later (BNPL) services are also set for significant growth, driving $20.2 billion in online spending, an 11% increase that represents roughly $2 billion more than the 2024 holiday season. Cyber Monday alone is expected to generate $1.04 billion in BNPL transactions, up 5% and marking a new milestone for the payment option.
Social media’s influence on holiday shopping will expand substantially as well, with social media advertising expected to drive a 51% year-over-year increase in online revenue, a sharp acceleration from the 5% growth seen in 2024.
