California on Thursday launched a first-of-its-kind digital tracking system to act as an “early warning system” for artificial intelligence (AI)-driven job losses.
The California AI-Unemployment Tracker cross-references monthly unemployment insurance claims with various measures of occupational exposure to AI.
Developed through a partnership between Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom’s office, the state’s Employment Development Department, and the University of California’s nonpartisan California Policy Lab, the tracker will be updated monthly. It provides a granular look at labor market disruptions, breaking down data by industry, region, age, education, gender, race, and ethnicity.
The initiative arrives amid escalating political pressure on lawmakers to address voter anxiety regarding technological displacement and rising living costs. California faces a unique challenge, balancing the nation’s highest unemployment rate with its status as the global epicenter for advanced AI development. The roll-out follows a May executive order from Newsom directing state agencies to craft workforce support strategies, a move closely watched as Newsom is widely expected to pursue the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination.
California is not alone in attempting to quantify the labor impacts of automation, though other states have taken different approaches.
Last year, New York updated its Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification (WARN) system to ask employers if layoffs were AI-related. However, because New York’s system relies entirely on corporate self-reporting, labor experts question its efficacy; out of more than 160 companies reporting mass layoffs there, none cited AI as the cause. Connecticut recently passed similar legislation.
By contrast, California’s tracker utilizes broader economic indicators, though its creators urge caution. Researchers note the tool cannot definitively prove AI caused specific layoffs, as data may be confounded by pandemic-related anomalies or standard market shifts.
“This tool helps us see early signals of AI-driven change as they happen,” said Till von Wachter, a UCLA economics professor and co-author of the accompanying report.
Researchers have found no evidence of a statewide surge in AI-induced mass layoffs, but distinct vulnerabilities are emerging in specific demographics.
Tech-heavy regions like the Bay Area and highly educated workers show elevated displacement rates. Notably, monthly unemployment claims among master’s and PhD holders in high-exposure roles jumped from an average of 13,000 in November 2022 to between 16,000 and 22,000 since mid-2023. Preliminary data also suggests workers aged 25 to 35, and women, face heightened vulnerability.
The data emerges against a backdrop of wider tech industry volatility, with industry tracker Layoffs.fyi reporting more than 121,000 tech layoffs this year. While some analysts argue AI is sometimes used as a scapegoat for broader fiscal tightening, corporate giants like Oracle Corp. have formally acknowledged the shift, noting in a recent annual report that AI deployment across operations has resulted in workforce reductions.
